Recently, an anonymous trader generated a surprising profit of approximately US$410,000 after placing a bet on the prediction market platform Polymarket that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office.
The trader’s account, created recently, purchased contracts for as little as US$96, which would pay out if the United States captured or removed Maduro before January 31. When news of the U.S. military operation and Maduro’s capture emerged, the value of those contracts skyrocketed, multiplying their worth and producing the massive gain.
The story has drawn attention not only because of the amount involved, but also due to the debate over potential use of insider information, as prediction markets like Polymarket allow bets on real-world events before they become public. This has prompted some U.S. lawmakers to push for stricter regulations to prevent the misuse of non-public information.
Additionally, Maduro’s capture triggered gains in stock indexes, oil prices, and energy stocks, highlighting the economic impact of recent geopolitical events.
Could this involve insider information?
Possibly. The case is already being closely watched by lawmakers seeking tighter oversight of these markets.
